DALLAS — Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and Democrat challenger Colin Allred are virtually tied in the race for U.S. Senate, according to new poll of likely voters that the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF) released on Monday morning.
Cruz has 48% support, while Allred is at 45%, TxHPF reported. The margin of error in this survey is +/- 2.83%.
“We have continued to see Allred consistently outperform the top of the ticket in this race. The data suggests that this speaks more to Allred’s favorables than what we are seeing in the national conversation,” said Jason Villalba, CEO of the TxHPF.
This survey shows likely Texas voters continue to have strong opinions of Cruz with 50% of respondents who said they view him unfavorably and 47% view him favorably.
For Allred, 41% of likely voters said they have a favorable opinion of him, while 29% view him unfavorably.
But the Dallas Democrat still appears to struggle with name identification as 30% of likely voters said they do not know enough about Allred to have an opinion about him.
Allred leads Cruz by double digits with Black and Hispanic likely voters and women.
Cruz has a double-digit advantage over Allred among white voters and men.
“The dynamism of the Harris campaign has had an obvious down ballot impact in the Allred vs. Cruz race, where Colin is now effectively tied with Cruz going into the final days of the campaign,” said Regina Montoya, a member of the TxHPF Board of Directors.
In the U.S. presidential race, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris among likely Texas voters, 50% to her 44%.
Texans still view Trump more favorably than Harris, 51% to Harris’ 44%.
Democrats have been hoping to continue to close the gap in Texas for presidential races, but these latest poll results track with the outcome of the 2020 general election in Texas with Trump defeating Biden here 52% to Biden’s 46%.
Trump surged ahead of Biden in the original rematch this year, until Biden, 81, left the race in July over questions about whether he was able to serve four more years as commander-in-chief.
“While former President Trump’s lead in Texas has diminished materially among likely voters since Biden left the race, his strength among Texas Hispanic likely voters continues to show a striking resilience,” Villalba added. “Given the size of the Hispanic voting population in Texas, if [Kamala] Harris were able to bolster her support among Hispanics in a meaningful way, she would have a significantly greater chance of flipping Texas blue.”
In addition to the candidates, four issues surfaced as paramount for likely Texas voters; 30% cited the economy as most important, 23% said it was preserving democracy, 20% said immigration and border security was top of mind and 13% said it’s reproductive rights.
This poll, like all political surveys, is a snapshot in time of these two high-profile races that Texans will see at the top of their ballot in November.
The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation surveyed 1,200 likely Texas voters between September 13 and 18, 2024 by contacting registered voters via SMS messages through which the respondents were directed to an online survey platform with the option to complete the survey in English or in Spanish.
Likely Texas voters who identified as white made up 57% of this survey population, likely Hispanic voters accounted for 24% and likely Black voters are 13%. Women represent 54% of this population and men 46%.
Allred and Cruz will meet face-to-face in their first, and perhaps only, debate on October 15 at 7:00 p.m. at WFAA’s studios in downtown Dallas. In addition to airing on WFAA and being streamed at WFAA+, an app that’s available to download on smart TVs, the debate will also be available on all of TEGNA’s 12 television stations in Texas.
WFAA full interview with Ted Cruz:
WFAA full interview with Colin Allred: